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Next Year, The Five Upward Force Of Non-ferrous Metals
Feb 24, 2017

2017, China's non-ferrous metals market environment better than last year. Three carriages to boost domestic demand and steady growth, various cost elements tend to ascend, the amount of "hot money" five forces driving the market look at fiercely as a tiger does, continue to heat up.

First, the three driving demand for steady growth

Since the second half of 2016, the main economic indicators of collective recovery, especially some leading indicators, such as PMI, the entrepreneur and the market confidence index of macro economic stability to the good, L the situation appeared to stabilize, and the decision-making department steady growth policy effect further force, the new year Chinese nonferrous metal "three carriages" sufficient momentum steady growth in demand.

"Three carriages" is the first investment growth. 2016 1-9 months, the national fixed asset investment growth (nominal growth) of 8.2%, 1-8 percentage points faster than in the month of, reversing the previous decline in the situation for the 4 consecutive month. Fixed asset investment structure, 1-9 months of private investment growth accelerated 0.4 percentage points over the 1-8 month, real estate development investment growth rate of 1-8 percentage points higher than in the month of, the growth rate of all to stabilize. Infrastructure investment is running high, the first three quarters of growth of up to 19.4%. Fixed asset investment is expected to increase in 2017, is still the first choice for steady growth of the decision-making sector. To this end, the major efforts will be approved and newly started investment projects, adhere to the introduction of PPP mechanism in project investment, increase inspection and supervision efforts. At the same time, in September this year, the national PPI (producer price index) the end of 54 consecutive months of decline, an increase of 0.1%. This is not only a major change in the situation of China's prices, but also means that many industry investment began profitable. With the gradual increase in PPI in the future, profitable prospects, is bound to attract more investment admission, reversing the sharp decline in private investment situation. "The Belt and Road construction investment also provides new impetus. The next two years, around the "The Belt and Road construction, construction projects overseas China increase, will drive the Chinese level of investment growth. Driven by it, is expected in 2017 the national level of fixed asset investment has increased, the national fixed asset investment growth will rise to about 10%, an increase of 1-2 percentage points higher than the growth rate in 2016. One of the country's infrastructure investment grew 20%, strong growth momentum does not change; the national real estate investment rose by more than 6%, the growth rate increased most significantly, not only far more than the 2015 growth rate of 1%, also higher than the 2016 growth rate of at least 1 percentage points; private investment growth in the second half of 2016 ended down on the basis of steady rebound in 2017, the growth rate increased to more than 3%.

Followed by industrial production stabilized rebound. Fixed asset investment growth, investment orders increased, of course, to promote industrial production growth. According to statistics, in September 2016 the national scale industrial added value (at comparable prices) growth of 0.47%, an increase of 6.2%, year-on-year growth for 7 consecutive months in more than 6%, 1-9 month cumulative growth rate of industrial added value reached 6%. Most can reflect the state of industrial production of electricity consumption, rail freight index all stabilized. Which in September the total electricity consumption (National Energy Board Statistics) grew by 6.9%, the growth rate rebounded sharply by the year of 7.1 percentage points. The country's industrial production in 2017 is expected to keep rising tone, the annual industrial added value growth rate will exceed 6%, even up to 7%. China's industrial manufacturing industry, is currently the world's largest number of non-ferrous metals industry consumption, some of the world's leading non-ferrous metals consumption accounted for more than 5. Steady rise in China's industrial production, is bound to improve the level of non-ferrous metals demand in the new year.

Finally, an important non-ferrous metals exports to maintain growth. According to customs statistics, in 2016 1-9 months, the country's 5 major non-ferrous metals export volume of 4 million 430 thousand tons, an increase of 2.5% over the same period last year. The export volume of copper and copper 707 thousand tons, an increase of 35.2%; manganese exports 238 thousand tons, an increase of 2.2%; aluminum and aluminum exports 3 million 470 thousand tons, down 2.4%. Since 2017 the international market demand reduction, Chinese competitive advantage is still in the promotion, and the devaluation of the renminbi and other factors, is expected in 2017 of the 5 important nonferrous metal annual export volume reached 4 million 600 thousand tons, growth of 4%, higher than the 2016 level.

Driven by the above three carriages, is expected in 2017 China's important non-ferrous metals demand (including exports) continued to increase steadily, an increase of more than 3% over the previous year.

Two, imports continue to a larger number of scale

Subject to increased demand, especially the strong momentum of exports, in 2016 the national non-ferrous metals and raw materials imports growth situation does not change. Customs statistics show that in 2016 1-9 months, the country's 8 major non-ferrous metals and metallurgical raw materials imports amounted to 41 million 390 thousand tons, an increase of 4.6%. The copper and copper alloy imports 3 million 390 thousand tons, an increase of 14%; alumina imports 2 million 170 thousand tons, down 31%; copper ore and concentrate imports 12 million 240 thousand tons, an increase of 31.9%; manganese ore and concentrate imports 12 million 360 thousand tons, growth of 5.1%. In accordance with the first 9 months of imports, it is estimated that in 2016 China's total imports of these important non-ferrous metals and metallurgical materials reached 55 million tons.

The prospect of China non-ferrous metal smelting raw materials and import situation in the new year, because Chinese demand increased steadily, some domestic enterprises cut resources so that the market share, lower inventory level of commercial society (with the exception of the national strategic reserve), and "buy or not to buy" trigger replenishment, hedging and speculative buying demand increase, make imports in 2017 China non-ferrous metals and smelting raw materials to larger scale, the above 8 kinds of important non-ferrous metal smelting raw materials and imports  

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