By 2017, the economic daily economic trends China Research Institute, the National Bureau of statistics Chinese economic monitoring center and Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association jointly compiled by the two quarter of the non-ferrous metal industry boom index report released recently. The report shows that, in the two quarter, the non-ferrous metals industry boom index was 128.1, down 2.7 points over the previous quarter, the economy showed a high drop trend, and far higher than the average annual prosperity level of nearly 5 years.
Overall, the first half of 2017, the non-ferrous metal industry overall showing a smooth production operation, high prices, shocks, benefits continued to improve. However, due to overcapacity, lack of innovation, financing difficulties, rising costs and other structural contradictions have not yet achieved a comprehensive breakthrough, prices rise is still the main factors of the effectiveness of industry, the development of basic industries continues to remain to be strengthened.
Significant increase in efficiency
Since 2017, the non-ferrous metal industry to seriously implement the general office of the State Council issued "on June 2016 to create a good market environment promoting guidance" transformation and increase the efficiency of adjusting the structure of nonferrous metal industry, promote the supply side structural reform, resolve excess capacity, improve resource protection and industrial competitiveness, the first half of the industry run steady for the better situation.
Output has maintained steady growth. The latest data show that in the first half of China's ten non-ferrous metal production was 27 million 596 thousand tons, an increase of 7.2%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points lower than in the first quarter, but expanded 7 percentage points over the same period last year.
Benefit status improved significantly. In the first half of this year, 8167 non-ferrous metals enterprises (not including independent gold enterprises) above Designated Size realized the main business income of 2 trillion and 940 billion 530 million yuan, an increase of 17.8%, and realized a total profit of 111 billion 510 million yuan, an increase of 55.5%.
In the first half of this year, the efficiency of non-ferrous metals enterprises above designated size has been greatly improved. Preliminary analysis shows that the rising prices of non-ferrous metals are the main factors for the recovery of industrial benefits." Deputy General Secretary of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Wang Huajun analysis, the first half of non-ferrous metals accumulated average price rose substantially over the same period last year. Data show that in the first half of the domestic market copper spot average price of 46 thousand and 600 yuan / ton, up 28.5%; aluminum spot average price of 13 thousand and 700 yuan / ton, an increase of 16.8%. "Because the main product prices continued to rise, 1-5 months, non-ferrous metals enterprises to achieve more than doubled profits. Among them, the profits of mines and smelting have been greatly increased, and the profits of the major metal varieties and industries have been increasing continuously."
The reason, Wang Huajun believes that in the first half of China's non-ferrous metal industry showed a steady trend for the better, mainly due to increased positive factors, warmer signal increases. Internationally, in the first half of the global economic recovery, economic and trade activities of major economies have picked up, economic policy uncertainty has declined, and global financial and economic stability has increased. From a domestic perspective, the first half of the improvement in the external environment, the rise in commodity prices, Chinese economy rise, new energy and traditional energy were enhanced, the supply and demand, investment and consumption, industrial production and corporate profits are showing a good trend.
The foundation remains to be consolidated
Despite the steady trend of the non-ferrous metal industry in the first half, but the current impact of sustained and healthy development of the industry prominent problems, uncertainties still exist.
First of all, overcapacity is still prominent contradictions, "to capacity" task is arduous. When the market environment is obviously improved, the power of capacity expansion will reappear. Statistics show that the current domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity reached 41 million tons, in June the production capacity of 35 million 660 thousand tons, not running capacity of more than 5 million 300 thousand tons, overcapacity contradiction is still outstanding.
Secondly, the old and new kinetic energy conversion is slow and the development potential is insufficient. Although the new kinetic energy of nonferrous metal industry transformation there are some bright spots, the proportion of small but in the industry system, realize innovation driven endogenous growth, transformation and upgrading of the industry overall, there is a long way to go. Wang Huajun said that investment in fixed assets of non-ferrous metals industry continued to decline for 4 consecutive years, "the decline in investment is to resolve excess capacity and other factors, but the basic research is weak, lack of technical support, high-tech projects inadequate reserves, is the most fundamental reason, will affect the industry development potential."
At the same time, enterprise funds remain tight. Although the overall industry benefits improve, but the overall profit margin is not high, 1-6 months, in the above scale enterprises achieve a record high profits, the industry's main business income, profit margin of only 3.8%. Coupled with the "two high one capital, two high and one left" concept is difficult to reverse, financial institutions for non-ferrous metals industry's financial support is still limited, some enterprises are still tight capital chain.
In addition, the international trade frictions are intensifying, and the demand side still faces severe challenges. Wang Huajun admitted that the non-ferrous metals industry is a highly internationalized industry, China's copper, aluminum, nickel and other raw materials need a large number of imports from the international market, the price of aluminum material, copper material such as excellent, good demand in the international market. But the western countries for their own interests, in view of China's nonferrous metal products international trade friction intensified, the United States last year after the Chinese aluminum industry "332" investigation hearing, this year also started on the 232 survey of imported aluminum products "". Once these investigations have made adverse decisions to our country, it will inevitably affect the export of the entire aluminum products, and then have a major impact on the balance of supply and demand of aluminum.
In the second half, the boom will not rise or fall
Comprehensive domestic and international macroeconomic factors and non-ferrous metal industry overcapacity, lack of innovation, financing difficulties, rising costs and other structural contradictions have not yet achieved a comprehensive breakthrough, industry development continues to improve the situation is still strong, is expected in the second half of the non-ferrous metal industry boom or a fluctuation trend, but the situation does not appear to change radically. "