1.Aviation: the promotion space is huge, the demand prospect is broad.
In 2017 China titanium processing material showed a substantial growth momentum in the field of high-end aerospace, shipbuilding, medicine and so on, especially the lower demand for aerospace industry demand growth rate reached 41.2%. From the world's four major titanium producers accounted, American Aerospace titanium demand accounted for 80% of the total; Russia accounted for about 60%. In our country, aerospace in 2017 accounted for only 16%. With Chinese vigorously development in the aerospace field, whether it is the field of civil aviation, military and aerospace fields, there is a huge demand for high-end titanium products, the future of the downstream demand accounted for to the United States, Russia and other countries closer, broad prospects.
2.Civil aviation: domestic large aircraft assembly line to pull the demand for civil aviation titanium material.
In November 2015, the homemade large aircraft C919 was installed down the line, opening the prelude to the localization of the large aircraft. According to the public information of Shanghai aircraft design and Research Institute, the proportion of titanium used by C919 is 9.3%, and the overall weight is 42.1 tons. It is speculated that the amount of titanium material per C919 is 3.92 tons / rack. According to the public information of China Shang Fei, the total number of C919 orders is 517, which will bring 2024 tons of demand increment to aviation titanium industry in the future.
3.Military aviation: transport -20 delivery service, military aviation titanium material is expected to increase rapidly.
In June 15, 2016, China's independent research and development of large multipurpose transport aircraft -20 formally delivered the army service. In the field of military transport, the C-5, which began to serve in the United States in 1970, was 6%, and the C-17, which began to serve in 1992, had increased to 10.3%.
We predict that the amount of titanium sponge (the loss rate problem) for the single carrier of -20 titanium is about 100 tons. In the future, if the 400 carrier -20 is installed, it will bring about 40 thousand tons of sponge titanium demand.
4.Nuclear power: national planning to lead the upsurge of construction.
Nuclear energy is a kind of clean energy, and the cost of electricity generation is low. It has both environmental protection and economy. It is one of the developing direction of the future world energy. Because of its high temperature resistance and corrosion resistance, titanium is of great importance in the field of nuclear power. It is the best choice for the blade of the nuclear condenser and generator. At present, China operates 30 nuclear motor units, with a installed capacity of 28 million 650 thousand kilowatts, and 21 units in the construction of nuclear power units and a capacity of 23 million 480 thousand KW. According to the energy development strategy action plan (2014-2020 years) issued by the general office of the State Council, by 2020, the installed capacity of nuclear power motor will reach 58 million kilowatts in China, and the capacity of nuclear power plant assembly will reach 30 million kilowatts. In order to estimate the future average annual capacity of 7 million 500 thousand kilowatts of nuclear power installed in order to complete the goal, per million kilowatts of nuclear power units to use 1.5 tons of titanium tube to calculate the corresponding average titanium consumption will reach 1125 tons, taking into account the construction period and shutting down capacity, the actual titanium consumption will be higher.
5. The analysis of uncertainty.
Downstream demand is less than expected.
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